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Technical Analysis ETFs
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About Technical Analysis ETFs |
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Technical Analysis ETFs Overview and forecast
Technical Analysis is a term used for a huge and controversial range of analytical methods. It'd take a book to describe them, but this investment strategy also covers the diverse Technical Analysis ETFs. That's not necessarily a selling point, however, for the traders.
PDP
Market tolerance of strategies goes only as far as they're successful. PowerShares DWA Technical Leaders (PDP) was a highly priced fund which had an 18 month run of relative sedate normal trading followed by a crash in the price during the market collapse. A short bounce was followed by another crash and a relatively sharp recovery. The ETF's trading volumes have returned to normal, but the price is still way below its original.
http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/
Which says more about the market than it does about the ETF itself. The problem with the more advanced ETFs, like many other market fashions, is that the fashion of one day is the plague of the next. The more technical the information levels, the less the patience.
Analysts could be forgiven for agreeing to some extent when confronted by the holdings of the Technical Analysis ETFs based on the technical analysis. The mixes of assets are also technical, naturally, and figuring out the weightings can become slightly difficult when seeing Apple (AAPL) and Stericycle Inc (SRCL) on exactly the same weighting in PDP's holdings, for example.
Short term (6 months)
Even if the long view of the Technical Analysis ETFs is looking like it's currently based on a trampoline, the fact remains that these things are relatively good sellers, and their price moves from the lower ranges have shown some good upsides. These ETFs have traded across respectable bandwidths in the first two quarters of 2009, and they've managed to stay off the crash bottom levels.
A recovering market will make the market more confident, and therefore more interested in the Technical Analysis ETFs. A weakening market will move to safety, which, from its perspective, is the more comprehensible end of the investment spectrum. Nothing is more persuasive than good margins for traders, and there the short term analysis of the Technical Analysis ETFs must stay, unless any significant events affect them individually.
Medium term (2 years)
It would be ridiculous to assume that the markets will return to their pre crash levels instantly, but two years and some general sanity will probably see a respectable return in values. That can only help the Technical Analysis ETFs, who will now have something to analyze apart from a train wreck.
The Technical Analysis ETFs, actually, would probably benefit a lot from good corporate governance and the advent of some actual talent in the US corporate management sphere. The age of Enrons, World Coms, mindless over leveraging, and other exercises in excess should have ended in 2005, at the latest, but investors wouldn't mind if it did so in the next two years.
Long term (5 years)
The longer the view, the better the Technical Analysis ETFs look. They are relatively new funds, no older than 2007, and like the other ETFs, they didn't quite have a chance to get started, before the crash hit. Some were doing quite well. It's fair to say that although their original design doesn't seem to have taken hold, they have achieved some level of acceptance as traders, and performance over time will persuade investors.
Five years is quite long enough for the Technical Analysis ETFs to diverge and differentiate, too. That won't hurt any of them, because as things stand they're seen as a small group of specialist ETFs, without the "personality" of longer running trading entities. Individuality will promote interest.
Qualifiers to projections
The Technical Analysis ETFs are far from a done deal, as an investment proposition. Strategies are the name of the game for all ETFs, and while technical analysis is pretty impressive, it becomes a lot less impressive if the wheel fall off. The ability of these ETFs to hold the market's attention is at the moment unproven.
There's nothing actually wrong with them, nor is there any compelling reason to watch them. They've done more or less what the indices did, a bit more emphatically, but nothing special. Their trading margins, so far, are more profitable than their long view. Investors should consider these ETFs as works in progress.
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Last Updated on: 2010-01-14 02:03:40 |
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